The championship game - Italy - France

Italy prob win 57 %
France prob win 43%

estimated scores 1-0 0-1 2-0 2-1

Germany - Portugal

Germany win prob 76 %
Portugal win prob 24 %

estimated scores 1-0 2-0 2-1 3-0

Portugal - France

Portugal prob winning - 21 %
France prob winning - 79 %

Estimated scores 0-1 0-2 1-0 1-2 0-3 2-1 2-0

Germany - Italy

Germany prob of winning - 54 %
Italy prob of winning - 45 %

Estimated scores 2-1 1-2 1-0 0-1 2-0 3-0

June 20 2006 predictions

Germany 2 Equador 1

Costa Rica - Poland

CR 12 % tie 31 % Poland 56%

Estimated scores 1-1 2-1 3-1

Sweden - England

Sweden 8 % tie 43% England 48%

Estimated score 1-1 1-2 1-3

June 17 predictions

First of all - who were whose guys and what did they do with the REAL Serbia and Montenegro team?

Portugal - Iran

Port 80% tie 16% iran 4%

Estimated score 3-1 2-1 4-1 1-1


Italy - USA

Italy 63% tie 28% USA 8%

Estimated score 2-1 1-1 3-1 4-1


Czech Republic - Ghana

Czech Republic can't lose.

estimated score 2-0 1-0 3-0 4-0 5-0

June 15 predictions

Equador - Costa Rica

Equador 60% tie 29% CR 11%

Estimated score 2-1 1-1 3-1 4-1

Sweden - Paraguay

Sweden can't lose.

Estimated scores 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0

England - Trinidad and Tobago

England 40% tie 40% TnT 20%

Estimated scores 2-1 1-1 1-2 3-1 2-2

June 14 results

Spain 4 Ukraine nil

I was dead on the money for this one.

Saudi Arabia 2 Tunisa 2

SA under performed

Germany 1 Poland 0

Poland's keeper was awesome, but he can't keep it up. Poland's going down

Tommorow's predictions

Korea - Togo

Togo 60% chance win 32 % chance tie 8% chance Korea

Estimated scores 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4

Brazil - Croatia

Tie 63% Brazil 31% Croatia 6%

Estimated score 1-1 2-1 3-1 1-0

France - Switzerland

France 47% tie 30 % Switzerland 23 %

Estimated score 1-1 2-1 1-2

Mexico - Iran

Back on schedule with this game. The system called it 2-0 Mexico with a 62 % chance of winning.

Angola - Portugal

Blew this one too. Angola was the fav for me - but the actualy score was 1-0 Portugal.

NOW the computer likes Portugal. Isn't that just like a computer?

Serbia and Montenegro - Netherlands

Blew this one - SM was the favorite here but lost 1-0

Estimated score was 2-1, 1-1.

I still like this team for the Cup.

Argentina - Ivory Coast

Another well called game - Argentina with a 38 % prob of victory and a 34 % prob of a tie - the estimated score was 1-1 follwed by 2-1.

Sweden - Trinidad and Tobago

The best game yet - this was another upset.

TnT were supposed to get killed but I predicted an 83% chance of a tie with an estimated score of 1-1.

England - Paraquay

The prob of this game being a tie was 50% - as opposed to the normal 25% in EPL play.

The Englland had a 44% chance of winning followed by a 6 % chance of Paraquay winning.

England underperformed in a 1-0 win. They better get used to the hot weather.

Estimated scores were 1-1 then 2-1 then 3-1

Poland - Equador

This game was an upset.

Like everyone else, I had Poland the favorite with an 87 % chance to win - estimated score 2-1

The actual score was 2-0 Equador.

The opening game

The opening game, Germany vrs Costra Rica went basically as planned.

The system said Germany was 64 % likely to win and the estimated score was 2-1

The actual result was 4-2 Germany.

The World Cup of Football 2006 Final

Date 9 July 2006
Home Serbia and Montenegro
Away Japan
Score 1-0

Third Place

Date 8 July 2006
Home Czech Republic
Away Sweden
Score 2-1

Semi Finals

Date 4 July 2006
Home Serbia and Montenegro
Away Czech Republic
Score 1-0

Date 5 July 2006
Home Sweden
Away Japan
Score 1-2

Quarter Finals

Date 30 June 2006
Home Germany
Away Serbia and Montenegro
Score 0-1

Date 30 June 2006
Home Czech Republic
Away Togo
Score 2-1

Date 1 July 2006
Home Sweden
Away Portugal
Score 2-1

Date 1 July 2006
Home Japan
Away Spain
Score 2-1

Round of 16

Date 24 June 2006
Home Germany
Away Paraguay
Score 1-0

Date 24 June 2006
Home Serbia and Montenegro
Away Angola
Score 2-0

Date 25 June 2006
Home Sweden
Away Ecuador
Score 1-0

Date 25 June 2006
Home Portugal
Away Argentina
Score 2-1

Date 26 June 2006
Home Czech Republic
Away Australia
Score 2-1

Date 26 June 2006
Home Togo
Away Saudi Arabia
Score 2-1

Date 27 June 2006
Home Japan
Away Italy
Score 3-1

Date 27 June 2006
Home Spain
Away France
Score 3-1

The round robin

This is how the computer says the round robin rounds will go

Date 9 June 2006
Home Poland
Away Ecuador
Score 1-2

Date 9 June 2006
Home Germany
Away Costa Rica
Score 1-0

Date 10 June 2006
Home Trinidad and Tobago
Away Sweden
Score 1-2


Date 10 June 2006
Home England
Away Paraguay
Score 1-2

Date 10 June 2006
Home Argentina
Away C“te d'Ivoire
Score 2-0

Date 11 June 2006
Home Angola
Away Portugal
Score 1-2

Date 11 June 2006
Home Mexico
Away Iran
Score 2-1

Date 11 June 2006
Home Serbia and Montenegro
Away Netherlands
Score 1-0

Date 12 June 2006
Home Australia
Away Japan
Score 2-1

Date 12 June 2006
Home USA
Away Czech Republic
Score 1-2

Date 12 June 2006
Home Italy
Away Ghana
Score 2-1

Date 13 June 2006
Home Korea Republic
Away Togo
Score 1-2

Date 13 June 2006
Home Brazil
Away Croatia
Score 1-2

Date 13 June 2006
Home France
Away Switzerland
Score 2-1

Date 14 June 2006
Home Spain
Away Ukraine
Score 3-0

Date 14 June 2006
Home Tunisia
Away Saudi Arabia
Score 1-2

Date 14 June 2006
Home Germany
Away Poland
Score 1-0

Date 15 June 2006
Home Ecuador
Away Costa Rica
Score 1-0

Date 15 June 2006
Home Sweden
Away Paraguay
Score 1-0

Date 15 June 2006
Home England
Away Trinidad and Tobago
Score 2-1

Date 16 June 2006
Home Mexico
Away Angola
Score 2-1

Date 16 June 2006
Home Netherlands
Away C“te d'Ivoire
Score 1-0

Date 16 June 2006
Home Argentina
Away Serbia and Montenegro
Score 0-1

Date 17 June 2006
Home Portugal
Away Iran
Score 2-0

Date 17 June 2006
Home Italy
Away USA
Score 2-1

Date 17 June 2006
Home Czech Republic
Away Ghana
Score 2-1

Date 18 June 2006
Home Japan
Away Croatia
Score 2-1

Date 18 June 2006
Home France
Away Korea Republic
Score 2-1

Date 18 June 2006
Home Brazil
Away Australia
Score 1-2

Date 19 June 2006
Home Spain
Away Tunisia
Score 4-1

Date 19 June 2006
Home Saudi Arabia
Away Ukraine
Score 1-0

Date 19 June 2006
Home Togo
Away Switzerland
Score 2-1

Date 20 June 2006
Home Ecuador
Away Germany
Score 0-1 1.0

Date 20 June 2006
Home Costa Rica
Away Poland
Score 2-1

Date 20 June 2006
Home Sweden
Away England
Score 2-0

Date 20 June 2006
Home Paraguay
Away Trinidad and Tobago
Score 2-1

Date 21 June 2006
Home C“te d'Ivoire
Away Serbia and Montenegro
Score 0-2

Date 21 June 2006
Home Iran
Away Angola
Score 2-1

Date 21 June 2006
Home Netherlands
Away Argentina
Score 1-2

Date 21 June 2006
Home Portugal
Away Mexico
Score 2-1

Date 22 June 2006
Home Ghana
Away USA
Score 1-0

Date 22 June 2006
Home Czech Republic
Away Italy
Score 2-1

Date 22 June 2006
Home Japan
Away Brazil
Score 2-0

Date 22 June 2006
Home Croatia
Away Australia
Score 2-1

Date 23 June 2006
Home Saudi Arabia
Away Spain
Score 1-2

Date 23 June 2006
Home Ukraine
Away Tunisia
Score 1-2

Date 23 June 2006
Home Togo
Away France
Score 2-1

Date 23 June 2006
Home Switzerland
Away Korea Republic
Score 2-1

Serbia and Montenegro wins the World Cup?

Looks that way.

My computer model - which is based on very preliminary information - really likes this team.

More in my next entry